Settle Of Catan Advanced Strategy Guide: The Social Game, Part 2 (#6b)

This is the second half of my Settler of Catan article.  If you stumbled upon this without reading the first half, here you are.

Rule 4: Knowledge Is Deadly If You’re Just Givin’ It Away

At the basest level, you probably know not to show people your development cards** or hand.  But if you won't offer up this piece of information, why give away others?  Don’t say “all I get is wheat and logs”, or you’ll never be able to act as though it is a hot commodity worthy of a high price.  Any sort of side chatter like, “I’m always waiting for ore” or “I've got sheep for days” weakens you in negotiations.  If you want to play well, there is rarely a better strategy than keeping quiet and talking about other things.  I wouldn’t suggest complete lies about resources, as smart players will keep a rough track of what you have.  You can, however, bend the truth, by saying you have all wheat when really you have just mostly wheat, so that people will trade you that third rock, or a player who also has wheat doesn’t want to rob you.

Corollary to rule 4: scoop up knowledge.  How well you play Settlers is dependent on how much you are willing to pay attention.  I don't memorize every card that is picked up (this is supposed to be fun, after all).  However, a frame of reference for what’s going on in everyone else’s shoes (ex. “Jen is strong on city materials but is dependent on an 11 for clay”, or “JFran is pretty boxed in, so will be singularly focused on building roads along this coast”) helps you negotiate and plan.  While you focus on not giving away packets of info, make sure to pick up theirs.  When you can say, “I know you have more logs than you need, and clearly need my sheep to get on that log port”, you’ve gone a long way in breaking down their opposition to trading.  As an additional point, don’t gloat about your trade or indicate it wasn’t fair, as it will build up their resistance to trading in the future.  Plus, it’s kinda rude.

Rule 5: Your Opponents’ Division Is Your Strength

When your opponents have found some arrangement for mutual gain (“You scratch my back…with clay, and I’ll scratch yours…with ore”), it is your duty to interfere. While in general the rule is to only trade when you benefit more than you’re opponent, always try to get in on a trade that’s going to happen anyway, even if your gain is small, because one of your opponents improving their position is better than two.  Interfere otherwise by blocking the traded resource, grabbing your own supply and offering a better deal, or pointing out how much one player is benefiting from the trades.  You can even divide them in the social game, by decrying how aggressive or sneaky one player is acting in-game.  The hardest part is obeying this rule along with rule #1; if your efforts are noticed you're the bad guy.

None of this belittles the value of forming your own alliances or trading arrangements.  There is a value to the “team” atmosphere that stops someone from adequately fighting you once you’ve gone ahead.  However, the key to alliances is just making sure it’s not between the other players.  And honestly, if you’re taking these suggestions, you’re probably the one they’re teaming up against.

There’s nothing I like more in the game of Risk than watching my opponents fight to the death.  If you can subtly encourage an opponent to place their settlement near them as opposed to near you, you’re the one who really came out ahead.  If you can convince player B that it is in their best interest to rob player C (“she just got logs, and I know you need them!”), block them (“wouldn’t it be great to cut off her longest road/access to the ports?”) or even merely decide to wait instead of helping player C, you’re the big winner.  This idea of slowing down bad developments is quite important, and leads me to my next point…

Rule 6: Know The Time Value Of Money, Er, Resources

A dollar today is better than a dollar tomorrow, right?  This is true not only because hey, a dollar, but because that dollar can be put to use sooner.  With resources, this is why you should feel proud of yourself if you influence player B to defer a trade with player C for a turn, or even until B’s turn.  C gets that wheat one turn later, gets a dev card one turn later (more if you sense this and rob C), gets the bonus later, which means slower future settlements, and the disadvantage compounds.  This is why I often am willing to trade much of my entire hand to get that third settlement out first; the quicker I am, the more time that settlement gets to pay for itself.

This idea of “now, not later” is what encourages you to value a steadier flow of resources.  A settlement on two 10’s if just as valuable as on a 10 and a 4, right?  And a city on an 11 pays as much as a settlement on a 5, right?  Wrong.  The different numbers will (on average) create fewer dry spells over time.  These periods of waiting and twiddling your thumbs are what kills an otherwise good game.  Every turn you’re sitting on a hand of 2 sheep, you can’t get in on the action, turn them into something good via trading, stop your opponents from trading with each other, or build that emergency road to mess up someone's master plan.  Plus, resources coming in clumps increase the danger of the robber.  So, move quickly, while of course telling your opponents there is no rush.

I always start a game by counting up the total pips on tiles of each resource.  If wheat has numbers of 2,3,10, and 11 (8 pips), while sheep has 4,5,6 and 9 (16 pips), you can expect it will be the Great Wheat Famine of 2013, and sheep will be basically toilet paper.  Knowing how the value of resources fluctuates is both dependent on experience and hard to quantify, but there are some patterns.  Clay is the most valuable in the early game, while ore is needed later to reach ten points (especially due to them each having fewer tiles on the board).  So, rob accordingly!  While the basic strategy is to count up the pips on the tile for comparison (3 settlements on a 3, or 3x2 pips ≈ a city on a 4, or 2x3 pips), this is the best play only some of the time.  Other times, a tile becomes irresistible to block off when it is another player’s only supply of what they need to move forward.  Don’t be afraid to block the only good wheat spot during the Great Wheat Famine with the robber, or even with roads.  Some say, “oh, you’ll need the Blue Terror to get them so you can trade.”  Nonsense.  This puts them in the position of power.  Wait it out, get a port, and trade with the outside world.

Wrapping Up

You’ll notice a number of rules mention subtlety.  To be a great player of Settlers you need to have a “constant aura of manipulation” (Jen’s words, not mine).  You impact decisions even when it seems you’re just talking about the weather, and carefully build on what people are saying about the game to craft a narrative (ex. Derelle’s winning, but Dave is the threat if he gets that port or Longest Road) that is both believable and keeps you under the radar.

Even with determined implementation of these rules, you’ll probably only win half the time against good players or 2/3 of the time against casual players.  That’s why this game is more friendly than say, Chess: no amount of trickery can beat unfortunate dice rolls, and everyone gets to win sometimes.  And this is more reason to observe rule 1 and not be a jerk: it saves you the embarrassment of saying the dice conspired against you.  And of course, remember to always win have fun.

Click here for an epilogue on "playing to win".

I encourage you to comment with your own strategies, reactions, and insights.  And of course, continue to settle Catan everywhere.  It’s one of the only games regular folk can enjoy alongside nerds.

**Unless you’re practicing one of my favorite negotiating tactics.  Whenever an opponents is considering robbing you, flash the knight and say, “I promise I will send it back on you next turn if you rob me”.  Showing the card lends credibility to your claim ("speak softly" and all), and can be used be used repeatedly when your opponents sees no better choice that repeatedly backing down.  A little intimidation goes a long way.